Please find a downloadable copy of the October Chart Book. The table below reflects September returns (through 9/29) for various markets.
| September 2025 | Period | YTD | Period | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +3.22% | +14.35% | MSCI EAFE | +1.23% | +24.30% |
| Russell 1000 | +3.11% | +14.21% | MSCI Emerging Markets | +6.64% | +26.93% |
| Russell 2000 | +2.91% | +9.20% | Barclays Aggregate | +1.13% | +6.18% |
| MSCI All Country World Index | +3.17% | +17.92% | Barclays Muni 1-10yr Blend | +0.99% | +4.11% |
Highlights for the month:
September saw a broad-based equity rally – Emerging Markets were the relative outperformer; equity market volatility (VIX) remains muted; P/E ratios remain elevated; S&P sectors were mixed on the month; investor sentiment remains relatively neutral; growth continues to outperform value; fixed income yields remain in a downtrend but are up off of recent lows; corporate bonds spreads are near two-years lows; the slope of the yield curve remains slightly positive and rangebound; consumer price inflation is in an uptrend; producer prices pulled back; inflation expectations remain muted; 2Q25 GDP was revised higher to a +3.38% annualized rate from +3.3% driven by stronger consumer spending;
Leading Economic Indicators declined by -0.5% in the latest reading (the largest monthly decline since April); Industrial Production remains firm; the Inventory/Sales ratio is making new lows; Fed Business Surveys are perking up; the ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 48.7% from 48% suggesting the manufacturing sector continues to contract but is improving; the ISM Services Index rose to 52% from 50.1% suggesting improved growth in the services sector; consumer confidence declined in September from 58.2% to 55.1% but remains above the lows seen earlier in the year;
Retail Sales beat expectations in the latest reading; consumer credit usage continues to slow; auto sales remain relatively weak; the Savings Rate continues to trend lower; housing starts and permits remain weak; New Home sales popped materially higher in the latest reading; Home Builder Confidence remains weak; home prices continue to trend lower; mortgage rates are trending materially lower; publicly traded REITs continue to trend higher; the Unemployment Rate is moderately higher; Initial Jobless Claims are trending higher; Fed Funds were reduced by 25bps; the Prime Rate has yet to follow; the National Debt is back on the rise; Money Supply growth is trending higher; broad based commodity indexes continue to trend higher; oil prices remain muted; precious metals are making new highs; Bitcoin remains rangebound; base metal prices are trending higher; the US $ remains weak but is not making new lows.
Page by Page:
Page 2: September saw a broad-based equity rally – Emerging Markets were the relative outperformer
Page 3: Equity market volatility (VIX) remains muted; P/E ratios remain elevated
Page 4: S&P sectors were mixed on the month
Page 5: Investor sentiment remains relatively neutral; growth continues to outperform value
Page 6: Fixed income yields remain in a downtrend but are up off of recent lows
Page 7: Corporate bonds spreads are near two-years lows; the slope of the yield curve remains slightly positive and rangebound
Page 8: Consumer price inflation is in an uptrend; producer prices pulled back; inflation expectations remain muted
Page 9: 2Q25 GDP was revised higher to a +3.38% annualized rate from +3.3% driven by stronger consumer spending; Leading Economic Indicators declined by -0.5% in the latest reading (the largest monthly decline since April)
Page 10: Industrial Production remains firm; the Inventory/Sales ratio is making new lows; Fed Business Surveys are perking up
Page 11: The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 48.7% from 48% suggesting the manufacturing sector continues to contract but is improving; the ISM Services Index rose to 52% from 50.1% suggesting improved growth in the services sector
Page 12: Consumer confidence declined in September from 58.2% to 55.1% but remains above the lows seen earlier in the year; Retail Sales beat expectations in the latest reading
Page 13: Consumer credit usage continues to slow
Page 14: Auto sales remain relatively weak; the Savings Rate continues to trend lower
Page 15: Housing starts and permits remain weak; New Home sales popped materially higher in the latest reading; Home Builder Confidence remains weak
Page 16: Home prices continue to trend lower
Page 18: Mortgage rates are trending materially lower; publicly traded REITs continue to trend higher
Page 19: The Unemployment Rate is moderately higher; Initial Jobless Claims are trending higher
Page 20: Fed Funds were reduced by 25bps; the Prime Rate has yet to follow; the National Debt is back on the rise; Money Supply growth is trending higher
Page 25: Broad based commodity indexes continue to trend higher; oil prices remain muted
Page 26: Precious metals are making new highs; Bitcoin remains rangebound; base metal prices are trending higher
Page 27: The US $ remains weak but is not making new lows
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