Please find a downloadable copy of the November Chart Book. The table below reflects the returns for various markets in October.
| October 2025 | Period | YTD | Period | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.43% | +17.52% | MSCI EAFE | +1.18% | +26.61% |
| Russell 1000 | +2.16% | +17.07% | MSCI Emerging Markets | +4.18% | +32.86% |
| Russell 2000 | +1.76% | +11.18% | Barclays Aggregate | +0.62% | +6.80% |
| MSCI All Country World Index | +2.24% | +21.09% | Barclays Muni 1-10yr Blend | +0.46% | +4.60% |
Highlights for the month:
Broad-based indexes remained elevated throughout October; emerging markets were the relative outperformers; The VIX spiked up mid-month to 25.31 before settling back around 17.5 to end the month,10-year yield was flat, closing at 4.11%, and the forward P/E ratio remains elevated; Technology saw significant gains as the rest of the US sectors remained flat or negative; Growth continues to outperform value, led by large-cap technology; CPI continues to trend towards 3%; 5-year forward inflation expectations continue to trend lower; Corporate bond spreads remain historically low; CPI continues towards the 3%; 5-year swap rates continue declining; Q2 2025 GDP was revised higher to 3.8% as imports sharply fell, companies drew from existing inventories, and consumer spending increased;
Fed business surveys remain mixed, pointing to an uncertain environment ahead; ISM Services Index declined to a neutral reading of 50, while ISM Manufacturing Index is slowly pushing towards neutral territory with the latest reading of 49.1; Sentiment slightly declines for both Michigan and the Conference Board consumer confidence indexes; Consumer credit and household debt continue to slow down, while household wealth significantly increased; Home Builder Confidence increased 5 points to 37, signaling optimism from falling mortgage rates; The 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.3%, which is the lowest level in over a year; U.S. mortgage applications saw an increase in October as the 30-year interest rate declined;
The unemployment rate remains 4.3%; jobless claims normalized after a one-week spike in September; The Fed lowered rates 25BPS in October, the Fed Funds rate is now 4%; M-2 Money Supply continues to increase gradually; Overall commodities were mixed, but precious metals saw the biggest pullback after Gold declined 9% after reaching a new high of $4,381; Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Bitcoin saw recent highs in October before pulling back into the month-end; base metals, Aluminum and Copper, saw greater than 5% performance through the month; The US Dollar remains weak but continued to slightly increase off the lows of September
Page by Page:
Page 2: Broad-based indexes remained elevated throughout October; emerging markets relatively outperformed
Page 3: The VIX spiked up mid-month to 25.31 before settling back around 17.5 to end the month, the 10-year yield was flat, closing at 4.11%, and the forward P/E ratio remains elevated
Page 4: Technology saw significant gains as the rest of the US sectors remained flat or negative
Page 5: Growth continues to outperform value, led by large-cap technology
Page 6: CPI continues to trend towards 3%; 5-year forward inflation expectations continue to trend lower
Page 7: Corporate bond spreads remain historically low
Page 8: CPI continues towards the 3%; 5-year swap rates continue to decline
Page 9: Q2 2025 GDP was revised higher to 3.8% as imports sharply fell, companies drew from existing inventories, and consumer spending increased
Page 10: Fed business surveys remain mixed, pointing to an uncertain environment ahead
Page 11: ISM Services Index declined to a neutral reading of 50, while ISM Manufacturing Index is slowly pushing towards neutral territory with the latest reading of 49.1
Page 12: Sentiment slightly declines for both Michigan and the Conference Board consumer confidence indexes
Page 13: Consumer credit and household debt continue to slow down, while household wealth significantly increased
Page 15: Home Builder Confidence increased 5 points to 37, signaling optimism from falling mortgage rates
Page 17: The 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.3%, which is the lowest level in over a year
Page 18: U.S. Mortgage applications saw an increase in October as the 30-year interest rate declined
Page 19: The unemployment rate remains 4.3%; jobless claims normalized after a one-week spike in September
Page 20: The Fed lowered rates 25BPS in October, the Fed Funds rate is now 4%; M-2 Money Supply continues to increase gradually
Page 25: Overall commodities were mixed, but precious metals saw the biggest pullback after Gold declined 9% after reaching a new high of $4,381
Page 26: Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Bitcoin saw recent highs in October before pulling back into the month-end; base metals, Aluminum and Copper, saw greater than 5% performance through the month
Page 27: The US Dollar remains weak but continued to increase slightly during October, off the lows of mid-September
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