Please find a downloadable copy of the December Chart Book. The table below reflects the returns for various markets in November.
| November 2025 | Period | YTD | Period | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.25% | +17.81% | MSCI EAFE | +0.62% | +27.40% |
| Russell 1000 | +0.24% | +17.36% | MSCI Emerging Markets | -2.39% | +29.69% |
| Russell 2000 | +0.85% | +12.12% | Barclays Aggregate | +0.62% | +7.46% |
| MSCI All Country World Index | -0.01% | +21.07% | Barclays Muni 1-10yr Blend | +0.24% | +4.85% |
Highlights for the month:
Broad-based indexes were mixed through November, with emerging markets the big loser and the S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE both ending slightly positive; 10-year treasury yields ended the month around ~4%, as the VIX took a round trip up to 27 before settling back around ~17; the US Dollar continues its momentum, breaking out from recent lows, and 12-month forward P/E ratios saw a large decline to levels not seen since the summer due to higher project earnings and weak breadth in the market; US sector performance was mixed, with half ending in positive territory, being led by a significant outperformance in healthcare as we watch for a rotation in flows; growth stocks continue to outperform relative to value, but small caps and value were both winners through the month as investors derisked from large cap tech due AI speculation;
All US government yields dipped to end the month; Japanese government yields continue to rise; corporate bond spreads remain historically low, but have increased over the last three months as investors digest potential inflation and an increasingly fragile labor market; swap rates and inflation expectations remain declining; the general activity for Fed Business Surveys rose from October, with a little more optimism, but still cautious and mixed looking ahead; ISM Services increase to expansionary territory, while ISM Manufacturing remains in contractionary territory; sentiment continues to slip in consumer confidence for both surveys; correlation continues to diverge from the S&P 500;
Home builder confidence continues to increase as lower mortgage rates are helping drive optimism; S&P/Case Shiller Index 3-month and 12-month changes were both positive for the first time since April of 2025, as supply has slowed; home price appreciation is starting a new positive trend, ticking up above 2%; The 30-year mortgage rate ended at ~6.4%, US mortgage delinquencies rose after declining through H1 25, and real estate loan delinquencies for commercial and residential rose during Q3; U.S. mortgage applications saw a significant increase of 7.1%; The labor market remains fragile as unemployment ticks to 4.4%, but continuing claims continue decreasing as companies are labor hoarding, neither firing nor hiring workers;
The Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Funds 25 BPS to a range of 3.75%-4%; Japanese inflation returns to 3% as global unemployment is slowly rising; Japanese consumer sentiment sharply increases 7 points to 42; Baltic Dry Index breaks out to a 2-year high of over 2,500 as demand surged for capsize vessels; overall commodities were mixed, but natural gas saw the biggest increase as it is perceived as the primary energy source to power the AI revolution; precious and base metals saw positive performances as Bitcoin declined towards $90K; The US Dollar remains weak but continues to increase off the recent lows slightly
Page by Page:
Page 2: Broad-based indexes were mixed through November, with emerging markets the big loser and the S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE both ending slightly positive
Page 3: 10-year treasury yields ended the month around ~4%, as the VIX took a round trip up to 27 before settling back around ~17; The US Dollar continues its momentum, breaking out from recent lows, and 12-month forward P/E ratios saw a large decline to levels not seen since the summer due to higher project earnings and weak breadth in the market
Page 4: US sector performance was mixed, with half ending in positive territory, being led by a significant outperformance in healthcare, as we watch for a rotation in flows
Page 5: Growth stocks continue to outperform relative to value, but small caps and value were both winners through the month as investors derisked from large-cap tech due to AI speculation
Page 6: All US government yields dipped to end the month; Japanese government yields continue to rise
Page 7: Corporate bond spreads remain historically low, but have increased over the last three months as investors digest potential inflation and an increasingly fragile labor market
Page 8: Swap rates and inflation expectations remain declining
Page 9: Awaiting government data
Page 10: The general activity for Fed Business surveys rose from October, with a little more optimism, but remains mixed and cautious looking ahead
Page 11: Services increase to expansionary territory, while manufacturing remains in contractionary territory
Page 12: Sentiment continues to slip in consumer confidence for both surveys; correlation continues to diverge from the S&P 500
Page 15: Home builder confidence continues to increase as lower mortgage rates are helping drive optimism
Page 16: S&P/Case Shiller Index 3-month and 12-month changes were both positive for the first time since April of 2025, as supply has slowed; home price appreciation is starting a new positive trend, ticking up above 2%
Page 17: The 30-year mortgage rate ended at ~6.4%, US mortgage delinquencies rose after declining through H1 25, and Real Estate loan delinquencies for commercial and residential rose during Q3
Page 18: U.S. mortgage applications saw a significant increase of 7.1%
Page 19: The labor market remains fragile as unemployment ticks to 4.4%, but continuing claims continue decreasing as companies are labor hoarding, neither firing nor hiring workers
Page 20: The Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Funds 25 BPS to a range of 3.75%-4%
Page 22: Japanese inflation returns to 3% as global unemployment is slowly rising
Page 24: Japanese consumer sentiment sharply increases 7 points to 42; Baltic Dry Index breaks out to a 2-year high of over 2,500 as demand surged for capsize vessels
Page 25: Overall commodities were mixed, but natural gas saw the biggest increase as it is perceived as the primary energy source to power the AI revolution
Page 26: Precious and base metals saw positive performances as Bitcoin declined towards $90K
Page 27: The US Dollar remains weak but continues to increase off the recent lows slightly
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