Please find a downloadable copy of the May Chart Book below. The table below reflects April returns for various markets.
| April 2025 | Period | YTD | Period | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.68% | -4.92% | MSCI EAFE | +4.58% | +11.76% |
| Russell 1000 | -0.60% | -5.06% | MSCI Emerging Markets | +1.31% | +4.28% |
| Russell 2000 | -2.38% | -11.93% | Barclays Aggregate | +0.39% | +3.18% |
| MSCI All Country World Index | +0.93% | -0.40% | Barclays Muni 1-10yr Blend | -0.56% | +0.14% |
Highlights for the month:
Equity markets were mixed on the month – Developed Int’l was the clear market winner; equity market volatility (VIX) declined sharply as markets rallied back from steep declines; P/E ratios are beginning to look more attractive; S&P sectors bounced back after sharp declines earlier in the month; investor sentiment remains near extremes – a positive development from a contrarian standpoint; fixed income yields pulled back from recent highs – the 2yr Treasury yield continues to fall as investors anticipate further Fed rate cuts; corporate bond spreads pulled back marginally after spiking higher; inflation indicators are now trending lower after a period of stickiness; 1Q25 GDP came in at a -0.3% annualized rate (the first contraction in 3 years) driven by a flood of imports in anticipation of tariffs – consumer spending and business investment remained healthy;
Leading Economic Indicators fell again in the latest reading (-0.7%) continuing to point to slowing activity ahead; Industrial Production continues to show strength; New Orders snapped higher; the inventory/sales ratio remains low; Fed Business Surveys remain relatively weak; the ISM Manufacturing Index hit 48.7% in April – down from 49% in March suggesting continued contraction in the manufacturing sector; the ISM Services Index was down in the latest reading but still suggests moderate growth in the services sector; the decline in consumer confidence accelerated in April (52.2 from 57.0) – consumer expectations remain weak;
Retail Sales were strong in the latest reading at +1.4% vs +0.2% prior – strength could be tariff related; consumer credit usage continues to slow; housing starts saw a small uptick in the latest reading – permits remain weak; Home Builder Confidence may be bottoming; home prices appear to be dropping; mortgage rates remain volatile but remain under 7%; publicly traded REITs snapped back but remain relatively weak; initial jobless claims remain contained; money supply growth continues; the National Debt appears to be leveling off; broad based commodity indexes continue to head lower; oil prices remain low; Bitcoin rallied after trending lower; gold prices remain near all-time highs; the US $ was down sharply during the month.
Page by Page
Page 2: Equity markets were mixed on the month – Developed Int’l was the clear market winner
Page 3: Equity market volatility (VIX) declined sharply as markets rallied back from steep declines; P/E ratios are beginning to look more attractive
Page 4: S&P sectors bounced back after sharp declines earlier in the month
Page 5: Investor sentiment remains near extremes – a positive development from a contrarian standpoint
Page 6: Fixed income yields pulled back from recent highs – the 2yr Treasury yield continues to fall as investors anticipate further Fed rate cuts
Page 7: Corporate bond spreads pulled back marginally after spiking higher
Page 8: Inflation indicators are now trending lower after a period of stickiness
Page 9: 1Q25 GDP came in at a -0.3% annualized rate (the first contraction in 3 years) driven by a flood of imports in anticpation of tariffs – consumer spending and business investment remained healthy; Leading Economic Indicators fell again in the latest reading (-0.7%) continuing to point to slowing activity ahead
Page 10: Industrial Production continues to show strength; New Orders snapped higher; the inventory/sales ratio remains low; Fed Business Surveys remain relatively weak
Page 11: The ISM Manufacturing Index hit 48.7% in April – down from 49% in March suggesting continued contraction in the manufacturing sector; the ISM Services Index was down in the latest reading but still suggests moderate growth in the services sector
Page 12: The decline in consumer confidence accelerated in April (52.2 from 57.0) – consumer expectations remain weak; Retail Sales were strong in the latest reading at +1.4% vs +0.2% prior – strength could be tariff related
Page 13: Consumer credit usage continues to slow
Page 15: Housing starts saw a small uptick in the latest reading – permits remain weak; Home Builder Confidence may be bottoming
Page 16: Home prices appear to be dropping
Page 18: Mortgage rates remain volatile but remain under 7%; publicly traded REITs snapped back but remain relatively weak
Page 19: Initial jobless claims remain contained
Page 20: Money supply growth continues; the National Debt appears to be leveling off
Page 25: Broad based commodity indexes continue to head lower; oil prices remain low
Page 26: Bitcoin rallied after trending lower; gold prices remain near all-time highs
Page 27: The US $ was down sharply during the month
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